Can’t wait for this weekends super rugby to kick-off. Hurricanes vs Crusaders. Let’s find out how good those teams really are this year. It’s a week full of games that are largely predicted to be close. We’ve also got 3 teams on a bye, so here’s out weekly run through of who we like and don’t like with one eye on this week, but the other on the season.
As ever, keep your eyes on the casualty ward and on the #casualtyward hashtag on twitter for the lastest.
Teams on a BYE: Brumbies, Highlanders, Lions.
Teams with Tough Match-ups: Crusaders/Canes, Bulls, Sunwolves
Teams with Easy Match-ups: Tahs, Jags (Chiefs/Rebels)
General Transfer and Squad advice:
It’s not a disaster if you can’t fill your bench. At a cost of 20 points per transfer out, the dude on your bench will need to score 40 points …. and how often does that happen. So don’t use transfers for the sake of using transfers, if you’ve got a good 15 out, and a sketchy bench, that’s ok. Focus on that starting 15, captain, and making sure you’re ok for the net couple of weeks.
You only get a 20 point penalty for dropping someone. So what, well, if you drop an expensive player around $400k for instance, and you have some money in the bank, then you might be able to bring in 3 players, but it won’t cost you any points. This has some longer term implications in trying to get expensive players back in, but is a great way of improving your squad.
1.BUY WARATHS – Folau / Hanigan
Folau is still only 31% owned but will end the year in the top 5 backs most likely. Up against the sunwolves this week. I’m selling Richie and buying Folau. Also, with Holloway being out – how long to be determined – Hanigan slots back into lock. He’s been serviceable, but with his run metres getting twice the points, it’s a nice match-up this week and he’s probably the guy to take a flyer on that can still support your squad over the rest of the season.
2. BUY – Montoya
That’s right, I’m still calling it. But with Marx on a bye this week it’s an ideal time to get him in. This year’s Ricciteli. Allows you to have one less prop/hooker in your squad.
3. BUY – Stormers – Kitshoff / Jantjies
So look, the Stormers have surprised me a little. I like their next run of games. Yes, they’re on tour, but the easier tour, being in Australia. That will mean lots of work for their forwards, and I picked Kitshoff as a season bet anyway. But Janjties has also made the position his own, so if you need cover at SH he’s a nice cheap little option to stash away.
For the rest of the article I’m going to change this up slightly and give a ranking of the top 3 to 4 players in each position (that aren’t already 30%+ owned). If there’s a preference for us to start ranking each positions on a weekly basis including the top / premium players who are 30%+ owned let us know:
PROP – HJH -> Montoya -> Kitshoff. HJH tops it this week because of his match-up against the Sunwolves, but all 3 of these guys are less than 20% owned, but all 3 will most likely end up in the top 10 in their position this year.
HOOKER – Montoya -> Akker -> Fainga’a. So basically you have to have Marx, then one of these guys. You could argue that Coles/Taylor could be your starters, then these guys, but frankly that’s stupid talk. Montoya offers too much as cover at prop and hooker not to have him. He’s also at the back of their rolling mauls. Akkers got some explosion in space, and Fainga’a can’t stop scoring. That’s just as well, because strip out those tries and there’s not that many points to be had. However, it’s about all the Brumbies have got working currently
LOCK – Petti -> Barrett -> Hanigan -> Liam Mitchell -> Philip. There is so much value to be had at lock. Petti is solid at worst but has some incredible burst. Like his match-up at home against the Chiefs this week. Scott Barrett only just squeaks in as he’s 29% owned, but has been superb this season. Hanigan has potential for a big week this week starting a lock now that he’s covering for Holloway. Liam Mitchell has been solid all season for the canes, and is great value at $160k. He’s pretty much the equivalent of Dickson for the Highlanders. Getting most of the starts, but will miss the occasional game. Matt Phillip rounds off a solid group with a nice couple of games coming up. When he gets 80 he gets 30+ points, the problem is the rebels rotation.
FLANKER / EIGHT – Frizzell -> Schoeman -> Ardie Savea -> Warren-Vosayaco. Pretty short list this week with my preferred two flankers off on byes. Apart from Ardie, all less than $200k. All top performers. Scott Barrett and Michael Hopper technically fall into this bucket as well being slightly less than 30% owned. Hooper is a great match-up this week, but at $391k, is not someone I like for the season, even though he’s getting more involved in the attacking game recently. Barrett we’ve already talked about.
SH – Weber -> Groom -> Jantjies. If you’re not invested in TJ or Genia, then there are the guys to have. Jantjies is actually the form player of the three, and I really like the next few games for the Stormers. But he’s still a nose behind Weber and Groom who are pretty much joined at the hip performance and price wise.
FH – Beauden (if you can afford him) -> Pollard -> Parker. Look so everyone’s got Jordie and Rob Du Preez because they’re great utility picks. DMck is a must, so there’s plenty to be had at FH. This is the best of the rest under 30% owned in that order. Pollard probably pops up to number 1 next week, but will be good for kick points this week. Beauden’s looked sharp form the moment he stepped on the pitch and edges it this week.
CENTRE – Laumape -> Kerevi -> Pollard -> Kriel. This one’s a really challenge this week. Laumape has huge upside, but I feel like the Crusaders will smoother the canes. Kerevi has a seemingly half decent match-up, but well, it’s the Reds we’re talking about. Pollard should do ok for kick points, but it’s going to be a bruiser this week against the sharks. Kriel will probably be ok, but not spectacular.
WG/FB – Nanai -> Van Den Heever -> Kriel -> Speckman. Then there’s a flyer list of Mapimpi, Daugunu, Taitia, Goosen. But, let’s be honest, you should have DMck and Folau, so that’s already two that can cover FB. Most likely you’ve got Reiko and/or Lam who cover wing. Throw in Jordie, Bridge and Mo’unga and backs are much easier to cover than forwards. So this this is an interesting one you can throw a blanket over a lot of guys because frankly they’re going to be more match-ups. All the while Nanai is a full back he’s great for points because he never passes the ball. Van Den Heever is a powerful runner. Kriel and Speckman great season bets as well. The rest are going to be pure squad material to roll-out for juicy match-ups.